★★★★★ 5
Illuminating perspective on the evolution of thought of the political leadership in Iran
Iran's Grand Strategy is a well timed overview of the why's of Iran's leadership political outlook and the historical path that has taken them to where they are today. The book was written before this war has erupted between Israel/US and Iran and so discusses the political economy under the leadership of Khomeini and Khamenei, but it gives enough substance to allow the reader to translate this historical perspective into an understanding of the internal dynamics of Iran in this moment, something that is probably largely absent from the political calculus of the US when it made its decision to join Israel's strike
The book is a work of political science and the history that has defined it. As such it starts with the Iranian revolution, the background to it, the politics of that day (which was mixing both socialist a-religious political groups with a religious political agenda for which the latter seized power) and how the leadership never really had a popular mandate to rule the country but consolidated power after broad discontent. Iran was subsequently really shaped by its war with Iraq and in many ways was a war of attrition and opportunism to varying degrees through time. Nonetheless this war shaped the leaderships views of how to govern and how to frame their mandate which was as the saviour of the country which would have to sacrifice to endure. Iran was the subject of chemical warfare, for which there were no sanctions. The US was seen to have subsidized Saddam's war initiative which provided ideological substance for considering the US as an enemy. The relationship with Israel is also discussed and how Iran took up the mantle of support for Palestinians as the much of other parts of the Middle East focused on a more narrow self interest. This period was define by the author's term Sacred Defence, where existential survival was the message for enlisting. This is also highlighted as how the regime became more defined by its security needs as determined by the IRGC rather than by the clerics. This phase shift has stuck and the author views much of the religious rationalization of political strategy as founded in security calculations from leadership of the IRGC along with the Ayatollah. This is why much major business is controlled by the IRGC and the Khamenei's son was projected to become the next leader despite hereditary rule as being anathema to an Islamic republic.
The author discusses how Iran repurposed itself as an axis of resistance to US hegemony that was founded in its wartime survival mentality. That this largely has not carried over to its population despite it being fundamentally entrenched in much of the IRGC. The various democratic initiatives pursued often backfired as the leadership was voted against in parliamentary elections, though the real influence on politics was minimal given the Ayatolla's dominance. This transition of interest of the population and obstinance of the leadership led to increasing civil unrest and a pick up in protesting in the aftermath of the regional overthrows that took place in Egypt, Libya etc.. These episodes also further highlighted how the nuclear program remained a core asset for preventing external influence given Libya's voluntary decision to cease its nuclear program did Ghaddafi no favors at the time of being overthrown. These highlight the self preservation of Iran's leadship as being independent of the will of the people which is why there is fundamental disillusionment in the country of the future based on the existing political economy.
The author spends time on the concept of Forward Defense, a guerilla warfare type mentality of the leadership to fill the power vacuum that emerged with the fall of Saddam. This had other regional reverberations in increased skirmishes with Israel through proxies and some religions fighting in Sunni/Shiite with Saudi and the Houthis as an example. Thus in the pursuit of resistance Iran ignored the externalities to regional players which have forced more isolation on Iran which is stuck in the past in its mindset and increasingly alone. This Forward Defense is part of the reason why settling on nuclear deals and having any mutual grounds for trust with the US has been impossible, with both sides having legitimate reasons for complete absence of trust. As such where we are today though not inevitable was never impossible.
Overall this book was written for context of Iran's political calculus with no prediction for the current conflict but it is useful for that goal. I feel more informed for reading it and have a better perspective on why the views are as they are. It is also hard to deny there has been significant pettiness mixed with deep conflicting strategic interests that have led to the frictions on display in the last 20 years. Core interests will be difficult to reconcile, but the pettiness adding further barriers is getting more absurd by the day. Nonetheless if one wants to get some healthy perspective this is a solid book.
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Reviewed in the United States on March 26, 2026
